Молодежный инновационный вестник

2415-7805

Федеральное государственное бюджетное образовательное учреждение высшего образования "Воронежский государственный медицинский университет имени Н.Н. Бурденко" Министерства здравоохранения Российской Федерации

8234

Unclassified

ASSESSMENT OF THE AGING PROCESS IN THE ASPECT OF DEMOGRAPHY

Ionova

Anna Sergeyevna

ionova.anna2016@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7196-6492

Voronezh State Medical University named after N.N. Burdenko

20042023

12S28081

01022023

15042023

2023

Relevance: Aging is a physiological, increasing with age, destructive process that leads to a decrease in the adaptive abilities of the body. Aging is an irreversible process, but it can prolong (or lengthen) for many decades by maintaining active longevity.Objective: To study the main demographic indicators of the population: mortality, fertility, population size and life expectancy.Materials and methods: The analysis was carried out on the basis of data taken from the official website of the Territorial Body of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Voronezh Region.Results: It was revealed that in recent years the birth rate has decreased by 1.4 times (2015-2021), the indicator of life expectancy decreased by 4.1 years, and mortality increased by 1.4 times (2019-2021). There is an increase in the number of elderly people, which contributes to the dominance of the mortality rate over the birth rate.Conclusion: The population of the Voronezh Region is subject to an intensive aging process. To improve the main indicators, the demographic policy "On the approval of the concept of demographic policy of the Voronezh Region for the period up to 2025" was implemented. This policy plans not only to increase the birth rate, but also to improve the quality of life of the entire population. Currently, the project has not brought the desired results, but the work that is being carried out in this direction contributes to the improvement of the main demographic indicators.

Relevance of research. The aging of the population nowadays is a long, global and irreversible process. If in 2000 the number of elderly people in the world was 600 million people, then in 2021 this figure exceeded 761 million people, and by 2050 it will increase to 1,603 million people according to the UN forecast. I agree with scientists' forecasts that in 2050 the number of elderly people in the world will exceed the number of children. [1] For the Russian Federation, the issue of population aging is one of the main ones. In our country there is a "Concept of demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 (from 9.10.2007) [2]. This demographic policy is aimed at creating conditions for population growth, increasing the life expectancy of the population, increasing the birth rate and reducing mortality, preserving and strengthening the health of the population and improving the quality of life. To implement this demographic policy, each subject of the Russian Federation has developed its own programs. The Voronezh Region adopted the program "On the approval of the concept of demographic policy of the Voronezh Region for the period up to 2025". The goal of this program is to maintain the population at the level of 2.1 million people, increase life expectancy to 75 years, birth rate by 15%, and migration growth should be 7.5 thousand people. The authorities of the Voronezh Region hope to achieve such results thanks to the development of perinatal technologies and the creation of favorable conditions for stimulating fertility. Goal. The purpose of the study is to analyze the demographic aging of the population in the Voronezh region and to study the impact of demographic policy on changes in the main demographic indicators. Materials and methods. To assess the demographic situation in the Voronezh region, official accounting documents for the period from 1991 to 2021 were used. These data were prepared by the Territorial Body of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Voronezh Region (Voronezhstat) [3]. The analysis of the obtained data was carried out using the sanitary-statistical method. The estimation of the population of the Voronezh region, the birth rate, mortality, and life expectancy was made. Results and their discussion. The Voronezh Region is an unfavorable region according to the main demographic indicators. The process of population aging is going on intensively in our region. Demographic aging an increase in the proportion of elderly people and a decrease in the number of children. The outcome of these two processes is a decrease in the birth rate and mortality. There are two types of aging: 1) Aging "from above" is the result of a decrease in fertility 2) Aging "from below" is a consequence of an increase in average life expectancy and a reduction in mortality in older age groups in conditions of low fertility. [4] The aging of the population of the Voronezh Region follows the path of two types. According to Voronezhstat, the birth rate in the region has been declining since the end of the 80s of the last century and reached its minimum point in 1999. Since 2007, this indicator has had a positive trend, the number of births from 20,670 people in 2007 increased to 25,290 people by 2014, by 2021 the number of births decreased to 18,593 people. This fact can be linked to a certain list of legislative acts adopted both in the country as a whole and in the region in recent years (since the beginning of 2007), which were aimed at increasing the birth rate, protecting motherhood and childhood. The decline in the birth rate growth by 2021 can be attributed to post-pregnancy consequences and instability in the world. [5] The birth rate in the Voronezh region is due to the spread of a small number of children in the family (1-2 children), an increase in the number of "old-born" women with the first child, an increase in the illegitimate birth rate. These factors slow down the tasks set in the program "Concepts of demographic policy of the Voronezh region for the period up to 2025" From the graph it can be seen that the birth rate had the highest values in the early 90s and in the period from 2009-2015. Over the past 5 years, the number of births has been declining. Analysis of data on the mortality of the population of the Voronezh region from 1991 to 2021 showed that the increase in mortality was noticeably observed in the 90s, this may be due to negative phenomena in history in this time period. From 2003 to 2019, the process decreased to the minimum value for this period of time, but in 2021 there was a jump in mortality rates due to a new coronavirus infection and concomitant complications. Despite the fact that fertility and mortality rates had negative dynamics in the 90s, the population of the Voronezh Region in this period was higher than in the period from 2003-2021, due to indicators such as life expectancy and population migration. The population of the region for 1991-2021 decreased by 163,423 thousand people. For the Voronezh Region, life expectancy is unstable. In the period from the beginning of the 90s to the two thousandth, the indicator is on the decline. In 1990, the indicator was 70.4 years, by 2000 it had decreased to 66.54 years. The increase in life expectancy occurred from 2000 to 2019 and increased by 4.3 years. In recent years, the indicator has decreased to 69.5, but demographic policy is trying to increase the indicator to 75 years. Life expectancy is directly related to the level of health care development in the country, the higher it is, the higher the indicator. Conclusion. Based on the results of these demographic indicators for the Voronezh region, it can be concluded that the program "The Concept of demographic policy of the Voronezh Region for the period up to 2025" has not yet brought the expected results. The birth rate has decreased, the death rate has increased. Life expectancy decreased by 4.1 years compared to 2019. Compared with the nineties and two thousandth years, the main demographic indicators have negative values. This may be related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The aging process of the population cannot be stopped, but it can be slowed down and demographic policy is being developed for this purpose. The progression of aging is associated with the development of healthcare, the growth of well-being, the effect of external and internal environmental factors. An increase in the number of elderly people directly affects an increase in mortality and a decrease in the birth rate and, consequently, leads to a slowdown in population growth. On the other hand, a decrease in the birth rate, an increase in mortality, an increase in life expectancy directly affect the aging process of the body, and as a result, an increase in the proportion of elderly people. The aging of the population and demographic consequences have an inextricable vicious circle. Since this process is irreversible, it is necessary to create and implement programs that will not only improve the demographic situation in the region, but also contribute to improving the quality of life. But most importantly, programs should be focused on developing and maintaining active longevity.

Скребнева А.В., Губина О.И. Анализ демографического старения населения в Воронежской области // Прикладные информационные аспекты медицины. 2016. Т19. №4. С. 66-70

https://base.garant.ru/191961/53f89421bbdaf741eb2d1ecc4ddb4c33/

https://voronezhstat.gks.ru/naselenie

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Демографическое_старение

Бессонова Л. П. Экономические проблемы регионов и отраслевых комплексов // Проблемы современной экономики, № 3 С.63), 2017 http://www.m-economy.ru/art.php?nArtId=6153